The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins today, Sunday, June 1, and experts warn that Saint Lucia and the wider Caribbean could face heightened tropical storm and hurricane threats over the next six months. According to the Saint Lucia Meteorological Services, several leading forecasting institutions—including Colorado State University, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the UK Met Office, and the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology—are predicting an above-average season due to warmer-than-normal sea temperatures and favorable storm development conditions.
Forecasts released by Colorado State University predict between 14 and 20 named storms this season, with 7 to 12 expected to become hurricanes and 2 to 6 reaching major hurricane strength (Category 3 or higher). Similarly, NOAA foresees a 60% chance of an above-normal season, estimating 13 to 16 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and 3 to 5 major hurricanes. The UK Met Office forecasts 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, while the Caribbean Institute anticipates 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.
These numbers are significantly higher than the 30-year seasonal average of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Meteorologists have pointed to unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, along with low wind shear and an active West African Monsoon, as key drivers of increased storm activity. ENSO conditions are also being monitored, though their influence this year is expected to be limited.
Despite predictions for below-normal rainfall over Saint Lucia from June to November, the Met Services warns that the threat of flash floods and landslides from isolated heavy rainfall events remains high. The forecast also highlights a concern for excessive heat during the season, which could pose risks to public health and safety.
The Saint Lucia Meteorological Services is urging residents, businesses, and national agencies to begin hurricane preparations immediately and stay informed by following official updates. The National Emergency Management Organization (NEMO) will continue to provide emergency guidance throughout the season.
The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, 2025.
